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Post by 李斯 on Nov 24, 2020 17:03:02 GMT -5
“关于新冠病毒源头的一些问题”
本文转自公众号“北美春秋”。作者Grace RN
1. 打了真新冠病毒疫苗。
前两天打了新冠病毒试验疫苗,没错,已经有疫苗了.朋友都说我很勇敢,当敢死队. 说到新冠病毒,大家怕得要死,说到新冠病毒疫苗,也是一堆人怕,大家都在讨论要不要打,有人说这疫苗刚出来不安全, 是哪里不安全又说不出所以然.
我有幸参加
Pfizer(辉瑞药厂) 第3/2阶段疫苗测试
我本身有医检师跟护士背景,对检验及人体实验方面很有兴趣,有机会跟辉瑞疫苗测试的医生聊了一下,挖了一些疫苗内幕消息,在这里跟大家解说一下,写这篇文章并不是要游说大家去打疫苗, 但也许在了解疫苗真面目后,对于打不打疫苗会有更好的决定. 我尽量用最简单的方式说明。
先说这个人体测试过程,8/31 我去测试诊所(美国有专门做不同人体实验的诊所)打了一针测试疫苗,被抽了三管血,这是辉瑞药厂第3/2阶段疫苗人体实验,有三万自愿者参加,这三万人里有一半的人打得是没有病毒的对照组(placebo),也就是control对照组,疫苗里面只有生理食盐水,没有病毒,另一半的人打的是含有新冠病毒表皮碎片,也就是病毒外表的spike protein(尖状突出物的蛋白质)的真疫苗,在做完人体测试, 接受真的新冠疫苗的测试者体内能制造足够对付新冠病毒抗体的话,这个疫苗测试就算成功,疫苗马上就能上市。
9/22 我要回去接受第二剂新冠疫苗, 之后一个月, 六个月, 12个月, 24个月都要回去验血, 这个人体测试为期两年, 在这两年里我得去诊所报到六次.
疫苗刚打入我手臂时, 我手臂没感觉到甚么,心里想这大概是生理食盐水,打到假疫苗了,搞半天跑来打生理食盐水? 但我开车回家时,手臂开始轻微酸痛,到了晚上开始全身不对劲,肌肉开始轻微酸痛,隔天上班一整天都觉得头昏,和疲劳,感觉好像要发烧了,但量体温又没发烧,也就是说我的身体对疫苗有反应了。
下班后打电话给辉瑞实验诊所的医生,报告我的症状,医生笑说你打到真的疫苗了,我问他对照组里是不是只有生理食盐水?有没有任何adjuvant (病毒以外的添加物)? 医师说对照组里只有生理食盐水,没有任何其他东西。 生理食盐水不会对人的身体造成任何反应,注入人体后就融入身体里,所以我跟医生都很确定我打的是真的含病毒的疫苗。
2. 疫苗里面到底含有什么?
疫苗里有三种东西:
一:病毒(抗原Antigent) :在这个疫苗里含有的抗原是病毒碎片,病毒表皮秃出来一根一根那部分,没有核酸,所以无法感染人体细胞致病. 疫苗里面的抗原是要让人体辨识外来致病物质当成敌人,所以一般是使用病原(细菌或病毒)的表面的片段,死的病菌,或是去毒性的活体. 在疫苗里的抗原必须是没有活性并且无法导致人体生病。
二:Adjuvant(佐药):佐药,也就是辅助药,附加剂。佐药中的第一种物质是保存剂,用来保存病毒里的抗原(病毒碎片)的稳定,如果病原在打进人体的之前就分解或衰败,那疫苗就失去意义。
三:佐药中的第二种物质,是活化人体免疫系统的药,打疫苗的目的是要告诉身体的免疫系统认识可能入侵的病原,让免疫系统针对病毒制造抗体,这个免疫系统活化剂就是要刺激免疫系统,告诉免疫系统敌人来了,把病源看清楚,快快准备抗战。
疫苗的制造可追朔到1930,从1930到现在,疫苗里的佐药不断更新,现在已经很稳定,各大药厂用的佐药都经过很多次测试跟使用,所以只要你曾经打过疫苗,你事实上已经接触过疫苗里的佐药。
美国政府跟各大公司一直都在大撒钱, 拚了命地推动新冠疫苗制造跟药品研发,据辉瑞医生说美国政府给了辉瑞药厂6 billion(60亿?) 用于制造疫苗,这还只是其中的一家药厂, 我的一个做博士后的病毒学家朋友就说,随便丢一个跟新冠病毒有关的研究就可以拿到不少钱. 美国毕竟是生技大国,各大药厂跟研究中心一直都日以继夜地拼疫苗跟治疗药物做研究等,能量很大。
事实上这些疫苗药厂都已经在大量制造疫苗. 以我本身的疫苗实验计算,9/22 打第二剂,抗体在第二剂后约2~3个礼拜抗体量会达到高峰,10/20可回诊抽血验抗体数量。
如果大数据收集够, 一万五千接受真疫苗的人都有足够抗体的话,疫苗会马上被批准上市,所以辉瑞的疫苗十一月上市并非不可能,在年底前一定能上市.
3. 迷思种种
迷思一:疫苗出来太快,八成抄捷径,不安全。
朋友说我很勇敢,敢打不安全的疫苗,其实一点也不是,我是经过分析考虑的。
疫苗出的快也抄了捷径,但在合理范围内,并不表示疫苗不安全。所有的人体试验都要经过美国 Institutional Review Board (IRB) 审核通过才能做。
我现在的人体实验是第三阶段 phase 3/2。第一阶段(phase 1) 是抓病毒剂量,试者所接受的疫苗,里面病毒剂量不一样,目的是由施打后抗体制造量计算出最后疫苗的病毒抗原的剂量,然后辉瑞把原来第二跟第三阶段合并,省掉第二阶段测试佐剂加生理食盐水为对照组这个实验,因为疫苗里的佐剂以前已经做过人体测试而且在市场上使用多次,不须再做人体实验, 所以疫苗里唯一需要测试新的东西只有病毒碎片(抗原)。药厂为了要赶出疫苗,绝对不会笨到乱加一些没用过或不稳定的药剂, 一是要花很多时间, 二是很可能实验会做出不想要的后果, 三是IRB不可能同意药厂合并第二跟第三阶段人体实验计划. 为了抢快,辉瑞这个药厂一定会用最稳定的佐剂才能在最短时间内不出错推出疫苗。加上辉瑞是大药厂做疫苗经验丰富,所以我其实对疫苗很有信心,才不是做敢死队呢!
迷思二:病毒会不会让我得新冠肺炎?
在这个疫苗里面的新冠病毒只是表皮蛋白质,没有病毒内部核酸,没有核酸病毒就无法复制,也就是没有活性,无法感染人体细胞.
迷思三:每次打疫苗都生病?
我的一个护士朋友说, 每次打流感疫苗就生一次病,信誓旦旦他从疫苗感染病毒。 其实他并非感染病毒,而是他的免疫系统对疫苗产生反应。 每个人的身体跟免疫反应都不一样,对疫苗反应的症状也不一样,从没有感觉,到像我一样不舒服个一天(我打流感有时会这样),或像我朋友就像得流感一样病几天甚至轻微发烧,也可能更严重,但这免疫系统反应就是我们打疫苗的目的,免疫系统有反应,卯起来制造抗体才能对抗病毒。轻微对疫苗有反应是正常的。
4. 为您解惑
问题一:打疫苗后抗体可以维持多久?
据研究,新冠病毒的抗体在人体内不能像其他疫苗的抗体存在人体一辈子,它是像流感疫苗的抗体,可能从第六个月开始下降. 说真的, 没人知道新冠疫苗抗体到底能维持多久. 根据研究, 新冠病毒在人体里可能维持三个月到几年。
啥?才三个月?这样的疫苗还值得打吗?其实不然,新冠病毒是新的病毒,研究说只有三个月的抗体是自然感染而产生的抗体,如前面说的每个人身体免疫反应不同,产生的抗体量也不同,这个只有三个月抗体的案子所接触的病毒量未知,可能免疫系统被激化不够,身体做出来的抗体量低。但疫苗的剂量是经过控制,有一定的剂量。但是到底能维持多久,目前还是个未知数。这也是为什么我参与的疫苗研究为时两年,不过不要灰心, 人体免疫力有记忆性,当第一次接触到从没接触过的抗原(病毒)时,人体大约要一个礼拜后才开始产生抗体,但如果是第二次以上接触,人体的反应就快多了,会更快地制造对付这个病原的抗体. 所以以后新冠病毒疫苗很可能会跟流感疫苗合并,每年打一次.
问题二:有没有可能我不会产生抗体?
有! 但机率非常非常低。有极端少数的人不管疫苗怎么打, 就是不产生抗体。是不是这种体质,没打疫苗之前没有人知道, 要打疫苗后验抗体才知.
问题三:是不是以后出的疫苗会比较好?
会! 疫苗一定会越出越好,所有的疫苗都是这样。以后新冠疫苗每年只要打一剂也不无可能。如果你打算别人家的小孩死不完, 等大部分的人都打一轮后我再打比较好的疫苗,那您可能要继续窝在家里半年到一年甚至更久,因为药厂要出新疫苗,更改疫苗内容物的话,要经过国家审核,再经过人体实验,旷日废时,可有的等了.
问题四:怎样才知道我有没有抗体?
抽血检验血清里的新冠病毒抗体IgG, 这个抗体在接触抗原后约三个礼拜到达高峰. 现在市面上亚培Abbott有新冠病毒抗体IgG快筛, 只要一滴血约十分钟即可有结果, 只要五块美金一个. 目前应该只卖医疗诊所或实验室.
问题五:我打了疫苗有抗体,是不是就不会染病?
如果打了新冠疫苗,身体有抗体,在新冠病毒跑进身体时, 抗体就会像螃蟹钳子一样, 一个个群起夹在病毒上面那些突出的蛋白质上,身体里的白血球看到抗体标示的怪物,马上一口整个吃掉,在白血球里面把病毒消灭,同时释放激素示警,大喊“狼来了!” 人体接受"狼来了"警示后, 一堆白血球就会跑出来巡视, 免疫系统马上提高警觉准备抗战... 厉害吧?!
如果说你接触太多病毒,抗体不够怎么办?如果你跟几个新冠病毒的病人关在密闭空间里,短时间内接触大量病毒(先请上帝保佑别让任何人有这种经历),身体里的抗体有可能被中和掉用掉,可能会染病,但身体会在一个礼拜内快速制造抗体,身体的抵抗力会比没有打过疫苗的人好多了……
重点是别让这种惨痛情况发生,也就是说,你周围越多人打疫苗有抗体,遭遇到这种情况的机率就很低 大家都越安全.
问题六:打了疫苗是不是就可以,不受居家令限制,可以满地跑?这要问你们家州长,这是政治问题。以医学概念来说,有新冠病毒抗体IgG的人身上不会有病毒。以后疫苗出来后,在大部分人口还未接受疫苗前,很可能上邮轮或旅游都会被要求疫苗注射证明甚至血清抗体证明。再不然在机场加上快筛IgG,对有抗体的人限制或要求隔离的话,就失去原来防止病毒的意义。所有的限制要防范的是病毒,不是人。
请注意 :
(1)有免疫方面疾病的人, 不能随便打疫苗, 请遵照你的免疫科医师指示。
(2)曾经对其他疫苗有过度反应或强烈反应的人, 能否打新冠疫苗, 请先询问医生。
(3)不适合打疫苗或不想打疫苗的人,外出请继续戴口罩, 尽量避免去人多的地方。
以上数据以美国疫苗制造为标准。
2020-09-13
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Post by 溪山 on Nov 25, 2020 2:08:56 GMT -5
从未打过流感疫苗。 打新冠疫苗也要等等看。
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Post by 李斯 on Nov 25, 2020 12:48:36 GMT -5
42 percent of Americans say they are not going to be vaccinated one way or other for making some kind of political statement. 转贴网络文章: 新冠疫苗研发已到了即将面市的阶段,研发疫苗的药厂也表示注射新疫苗会引发肌肉酸痛、发冷、头疼、虚弱等强烈反应,公卫界呼吁联邦疾病防治中心(CDC)公开向民众说明,「打疫苗不像到公园散步那么轻松」,以免民众接种第一剂疫苗后,就放弃注射第二剂,导致功亏一篑。 美国医学会的珊卓拉‧弗莱霍佛医师(Sandra Fryhofer)说,辉瑞和莫德纳的疫苗都需打两剂,她怀疑打了第一针,感觉不好受的人,会不会愿意回来打第二针;她说,她明白病人的心理。 这两大药厂也承认,它们生产的新冠疫苗,会产生类如轻微染疫者的症状,包括肌肉酸痛和身体发冷。 参加23日CDC会议的医师说,政府应该将资讯透明化,以免民众打了一针就怕得不敢再打第二针。 弗莱霍佛建议CDC让民众了解第一针不会很好受,但仍得回来打第二针才有效。 曾参加这两大药厂9月临床试验的民众告诉CNBC有线电视网,疫苗让他们发高烧、剧烈头疼、肌肉疼痛、成天疲倦等等;不过,多数受试者说,激烈疼痛和其他不舒服感,一天就过去了,也比真的染上病毒好。 一名50几岁,参与莫德纳疫苗试验的北卡罗来纳州妇女说,她没有发烧,但偏头痛的厉害,痛了一整天,几乎无法集中精神;第二天起床后吃了头痛药就好多了,「莫德纳最好告诉民众,打第二针翌日,休假一天。」 她说,「如果疫苗有效,大家得坚忍挺住。第一针没啥大不了,第二针反应才严重,打了第二针,第二天你最好休假在家。」 明尼苏达州儿童医院的史汀曲费尔德(Patsy Stinchfield)医师说,手臂酸痛或疲倦,甚至会发烧,都是注射疫苗后的正常感觉,如果像试验组回馈的反应,就要有一天休假,好好的休养。其他医师说,这总比隔离14天,甚至住院治疗,对家庭的影响要小得多。
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Post by bobmaster on Nov 28, 2020 7:10:03 GMT -5
谢谢李哥对疫苗的分享,大陆这边,我们家这还没怎么听说疫苗相关的东西,慢慢等喽 不过我是怕打针的人~
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Post by 李斯 on Nov 28, 2020 19:18:36 GMT -5
谢谢李哥对疫苗的分享,大陆这边,我们家这还没怎么听说疫苗相关的东西,慢慢等喽 不过我是怕打针的人~ Bob老弟别担心,大陆对病毒管控得很严,好像各地情况基本已经恢复正常了。现在重点是防止外来人口进入,所以我们十年有效签证已经被作废,回国需要有特别理由重新办理,还有一整套的检测手续,只要把门关上,疫苗慢慢总会有的。我们美国这里,这两个星期来好像增加了近两百万病人,虽然疫苗开始上市,但要全民人人都接种的阻力很大,前景不容乐观。
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 9, 2020 10:46:50 GMT -5
Based on your risk profile, we believe you’re in line behind 268.7 million people across the United States. When it comes to your state, we think you’re behind 7.0 million others who are at higher risk in your state. And in xxxxxx County, you’re behind 90,500 others. These are just estimates and the line may ultimately be shorter. The order isn’t yet finalized and children could be skipped entirely if the vaccine isn’t approved for people under 18. Above, are my number, and find your number here, please. Thanks.
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Post by 溪山 on Dec 10, 2020 2:08:22 GMT -5
I'll wait and see.
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Post by 特斯拉 on Dec 11, 2020 22:38:37 GMT -5
好消息: “The FDA’s authorization for emergency use of the first COVID-19 vaccine is a significant milestone in battling this devastating pandemic that has affected so many families in the United States and around the world,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “Today’s action follows an open and transparent review process that included input from independent scientific and public health experts and a thorough evaluation by the agency’s career scientists to ensure this vaccine met FDA’s rigorous, scientific standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality needed to support emergency use authorization. The tireless work to develop a new vaccine to prevent this novel, serious, and life-threatening disease in an expedited timeframe after its emergence is a true testament to scientific innovation and public-private collaboration worldwide.” www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19
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Post by 溪山 on Dec 11, 2020 23:50:52 GMT -5
It seems we can reasonably hope for an end to the pandemic in 2021.
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 15, 2020 20:12:07 GMT -5
看起来,接种疫苗的实际时间要比预计的快很多,Dr. Fauci今天说,美国最快三月底前,愿意接种的人都有可能获得疫苗。因为现在还有两家制药公司的疫苗研究进入最后阶段。希望明天夏天民众日常生活可以恢复正常。
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Post by 溪山 on Dec 16, 2020 1:09:38 GMT -5
希望如此,但我没这么乐观。
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听雨
Full Member
Posts: 221
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Post by 听雨 on Jan 14, 2021 0:39:04 GMT -5
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Post by 溪山 on Jan 15, 2021 2:31:17 GMT -5
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel on Wednesday warned that the coronavirus is "not going away" and the world will have to live with it "forever." “We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever,” Bancel said. ----
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Post by 李斯 on May 4, 2021 16:52:48 GMT -5
美传染病专家在印感染新冠去世 此前已注射两针辉瑞 5月3日,美国印度裔传染病专家拉贾德拉·卡皮拉在印度感染新冠病毒后去世。他是传染病专家,对新冠病毒有专门研究,去印度之前已经完成了两针新冠病毒疫苗注射。由于这一原因,卡皮拉之死受到很大的关注。 卡皮拉是一名传染病专家,已经新泽西医科及牙医大学医院工作20余年。美国HIV/AIDS总统顾问委员会成员罗伯特·施瓦茨在美国当地时间5月3日上午透露了这一消息,并向卡皮拉的家人致哀。资料显示,卡皮拉和罗伯特·施瓦茨是多年好友,曾经共同发表过多篇论文。 据了解情况的人透露,卡皮拉从美国回到印度北方邦的加济阿巴德,以便照顾年老的岳父。卡皮拉在出发之前,已经完成了两针辉瑞公司的新冠疫苗注射,然而不幸的,他在印度很快感染了新冠病毒印度变种。 link
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Post by 溪山 on May 5, 2021 0:51:01 GMT -5
真是不幸。 看来疫苗的效力是有限的。
我继续观望。 最保险的还是室内多通风,不凑热闹。
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Post by 李斯 on May 27, 2021 13:04:26 GMT -5
事情发展到了一个非常微妙的境地!
"The origins of the coronavirus aren’t just a matter of scientific curiosity. A definitive answer to where it came from could have an enormous impact on how we understand and prepare for deadly outbreaks, the political effects of the pandemic in the U.S and the world’s relationship with China."
"The debate over the lab leak has already raised tensions between the Chinese government — which categorically denies the theory — and its international competitors, who have become frustrated with China’s lack of transparency throughout the pandemic. Clear evidence that the virus did in fact escape from a Chinese lab could further fray the country’s international relationships or deal a blow to its ambitions to become the world’s dominant economic power, experts say."
Everything at stake in the hunt for COVID-19’s origins by Mike Bebernes·Senior Editor at Yahoo News Thu, May 27, 2021
What’s happening
Since the early days of the pandemic, there's been broad scientific consensus that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 originally developed in bats before eventually moving to humans, just as the viruses behind SARS and MERS did. An alternate explanation, that the virus escaped from a Chinese lab, was largely dismissed as something between highly unlikely and wildly conspiratorial.
Over time, however, the lab leak theory has gained more traction among respected scientists as circumstantial evidence has piled up and proof of animal transmission hasn’t emerged. To be clear, no explanation of the origins of SARS-CoV-2 has been proven and many scientists still say it is far more likely that the virus developed naturally. But a number of health experts who had expressed near certainty about the issue last spring are now at least considering the lab leak theory as a possibility.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said earlier this month that he’s “not convinced” that the virus originated in the wild and said he supported further investigation into the question. Dr. Robert Redfield, who was director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention until January, said recently that he believes the lab theory is the “most likely” explanation.
In the most basic terms, the lab leak theory posits that the virus was created by scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology — a prominent research facility in the same part of China where the pandemic first took hold — and was unwittingly transmitted to the general population by lab staffers who became infected there. An alternative theory, that the virus was released deliberately as a bioweapon, has been thoroughly debunked.
Why there’s debate
The origins of the coronavirus aren’t just a matter of scientific curiosity. A definitive answer to where it came from could have an enormous impact on how we understand and prepare for deadly outbreaks, the political effects of the pandemic in the U.S and the world’s relationship with China.
Some experts say proof that the virus escaped from a lab would upend the entire field of virology and force the scientific community to reconsider how it studies dangerous pathogens. Others fear that a lab leak would undo the trust and goodwill that the field of science has gained with much of the public over the course of the pandemic.
In the U.S., proof of a lab leak could allow former President Donald Trump — who repeatedly attempted to blame China for the pandemic — to reframe what is widely considered to be his failed response to the virus, political analysts say. That would not only have an impact on his legacy, they argue, but could also influence his chances of winning reelection if he runs for president again. The lab leak theory could also be a moment of reckoning for the media, some argue, because of the certainty with which they dismissed the idea last year.
The debate over the lab leak has already raised tensions between the Chinese government — which categorically denies the theory — and its international competitors, who have become frustrated with China’s lack of transparency throughout the pandemic. Clear evidence that the virus did in fact escape from a Chinese lab could further fray the country’s international relationships or deal a blow to its ambitions to become the world’s dominant economic power, experts say.
What’s next
President Biden on Wednesday asked U.S. intelligence agencies to redouble their efforts to find the source of COVID-19, but it’s unclear whether China will allow anything more than the limited access they have offered to global investigators so far. Many virologists say it’s possible that the origins of SARS-CoV-2 may never be proven.
Perspectives Debate over COVID’s origins is distracting from the global effort to stamp out the virus
“While a lab-leak debate overwhelms the media & politics, tidal waves of COVID will crash on low/middle-income countries. New strains of SARSCoV2 could evolve in the next few years. … Powerful countries would be wise to concentrate on preventing that.” — Nature reporter Amy Maxman
We need to know how this pandemic started if we want to prevent the next one
“This question of origins is not an idle debate, either. It matters a lot, because knowing how a virus-driven pandemic begins focuses our attention on preventing similar situations. There are many more disease-causing viruses out there.” — Josh Fischman, Scientific American
The way we research and prepare for deadly viruses could be upended
“Virologists have a significant stake in the origin issue because they have for years enhanced the danger of natural viruses in their laboratories. … If in fact one of these souped-up viruses is the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, virologists everywhere, not just in China, will have a lot of explaining to do.” — Nicholas Wade, New York Post
Proof isn’t necessary to reconsider dangerous virology practices
“It’s not all about whether a lab accident caused this particular pandemic. I’d like to see the attention focus on the regulation of dangerous experiments, because we’ve seen what a pandemic can do to us all, and we should be extremely sure before we do anything that increases that probability even a little.” — Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch to MIT Technology Review
Proof of a lab leak could erode public trust in science
“Should we discover that COVID-19 originated in research — however well-intentioned — a recent boost in public support for science could evaporate, which might be the greatest risk of all.” — Bryan Walsh, Axios
The lab leak, if proven, could become a political weapon for Republicans
“Pro-Trumpers want to use Chinese misconduct — real and imagined — as a weapon in a culture war here at home. They are not interested in weighing the evidence. They want payback for the political and cultural injuries inflicted on them by the scientists. They want Fauci to have time in the barrel. What the rest of us should want is the truth.” — David Frum, The Atlantic
No answer on COVID’s origins will excuse Trump’s failed pandemic response
“In any case, whether it originated in a lab or a wet market is irrelevant to Trump’s decisions — either way, his job was to protect Americans from the virus, and he failed.” — Jonathan Chait, New York
The media, on both sides, must reconsider how it lets politics define truth
“The narrative first failures of right-wing media during this pandemic, I think, have tangibly degraded the nation's ability both to govern itself and fight off pandemics. But it is not exclusive to them. Those impulses suffuse all of us. … It should be an object lesson to all of us not to let ourselves view the world primarily as through a set of facts that may or may not be conveniently marshaled for a specific political end.” — Chris Hayes, MSNBC
The liberal media’s credibility could take a major blow
“It's not that we found new evidence backing the hypothesis. It's just that the same journalists who parroted the talking points of scientists with obvious conflicts of interest were so blinded by their partisan loathing of then-President Donald Trump that they could not be trusted to evaluate the evidence themselves.” — Tiana Lowe, Washington Examiner
Proof of a lab leak could destabilize China’s government
“Although no one could blame China for a natural occurrence, people around the world and in China would be enraged if it were discovered that COVID-19 stemmed from an accidental lab leak and coverup. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s grip on power could be threatened.” — Jamie Metzl, The Hill
Clear evidence of a lab leak could have massive economic repercussions
“You know what animal smugglers have zero impact upon? Apple’s manufacturing; Disney’s revenues from movies, theme parks, and merchandise sales; America’s exports of soybeans, oil, natural gas, microchips, cotton, and corn — $124 billion in U.S. trade revenues. You know what does have an impact on $124 billion in U.S. trade revenues? The Chinese government, which is why a whole lot of America’s business, political, cultural, and social elites don’t want to antagonize the Chinese government.” — Jim Geraghty, National Review
The lab leak theory doesn’t need to be proven for the world’s faith in China to be broken
“Even if the lab-leak hypothesis is false, the evidence is overwhelming that China's government denied the seriousness of the outbreak for weeks, silencing Chinese voices that tried to sound the alarm, before the decision to lock down Wuhan made dissembling impossible. By then, though, the pandemic was already well underway. The culpability of the Chinese government is clear, in other words, regardless of the truth about the pandemic's origins.” — Noah Millman, The Week
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Post by 溪山 on May 28, 2021 0:36:05 GMT -5
多谢丞相转帖! Amidst all the uncertainties, one thing is sure -- 华人处境愈加艰难。
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Post by 边 草 on May 28, 2021 7:24:21 GMT -5
这查源头是应该的,这么大的事情不管是人为故意还是意外过失都必须查清楚,给当今和历史有一个交待。但是这事情说起来容易做起来难。 按道理,WHO最有资格和理由出面。但它本身是靠成员国会费过日子,其领导人靠大国的支持与否而存活,所以很容易因为个人利益被操纵。 美国现在国内民主政治状况这么遭,自己家里各种阴谋论层出不穷、甚嚣尘上,那怎么还有信誉领头做这种世界警察的事情呢?再说,即使查出了结果,那又怎么样?中国肯定不会承认任何过错过失的,不管别人有没有证据。抗拒从宽回家过年,你能拿他们怎么办? 怎么说这都是一个棘手的活。而且让美华成为两片面包中的那块肉,身在其中多少会遭受压力的。
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Post by 溪山 on May 28, 2021 23:56:17 GMT -5
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Post by 边 草 on May 29, 2021 12:09:33 GMT -5
Thank you for echoing my sentiment. For that, I'd like elaborate a bit more with the subject. 我前面提到怀疑美国如今当世界警察的资格和能力,因为调查病毒源头不像是干预某一个地区两国的边界冲突,平息内战或者种族屠杀。 2019年底中国对武汉采取封城的速度和力度及随后派遣一名女(专家)少将去武汉控制局面的措施让我感到那病毒不像是水产市场从动物身上传染给人的,而更像有认为因素,不管是故意还是过失,反正中国政府无法承担病毒爆发后面的原因,所以会采取严厉果断的措施。但是我无法求证。 美国政府在一开始不断吹捧习近平,为中国政府说好话。那时情况明确吗?一点也不!如果从一开始严肃认真对待病毒的蔓延,同时要求习近平配合世卫组织调查,那么可能就阻断了中国不少(篡改)机会和退路。相反,从三月份开始,美国总统不向世界提供任何证据的情况下,只是嘴上说"中国病毒"、"武汉病毒",这种做法非常不严肃,有百害而无一利。面临百年一遇的流行病毒,美国国内将之政治化而不是依赖科学及同世界各国合作,包括中国,我们错过了太多的机会。如果总统要求情治部门三个月拿出能够让人信服的证据及结果,在中国拒绝配合调查的情况下,任何结果都可以是单方面的结论,信者才信,怀疑者很容易怀疑。还不提去年已经有美国军人九月份带病毒到武汉参加比赛,病毒通过冷冻食品进入中国这样的反驳。 另外,如今美国国内暴力事件、枪杀事件此起彼伏,美国人真的这么在意人权、保护生命吗?民众冲击国会,选民怀疑选举(经过多少法官裁定后的)结果,世界其他国家民主会问,美国人真的那么关心事实和真相吗?如果国内道德秩序这么差,我们还有多少底气去追究病毒到底是哪里来的吗? 结论是,今天美国仍然可能充当世界治安警察,但是当道德警察的地位已经相当薄弱,如果还没有完全丧失殆尽的话。
只值两分钱的个人观点,请各位多批评。
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Post by 溪山 on May 30, 2021 1:24:27 GMT -5
多谢边君分享!
“美国国内暴力事件” --- 尤其是对亚裔和最近对犹太裔的暴力攻击,让我对美国社会非常失望。 连纽约州长都认为治安是大问题了。
Cuomo said "NYC’s 3 biggest problems are ‘crime, crime, crime’" ----- Isn't this true in many parts of this country?
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Post by 边 草 on Nov 4, 2021 19:55:25 GMT -5
好可怕!!
(路透社)美国一项研究发现,爱荷华州的野生鹿群出现大规模新冠肺炎(OVID-19)感染,将近3分之1的检测样本都证实染疫。研究团队指出,野鹿可能成为新冠肺炎的宿主,更担忧病毒会在野鹿等野生动物体内变种,再重新传染给人类。
这项研究由宾州大学、爱荷华州自然资源部门与爱荷华州大学进行。研究人员自去年4月到今年1月以来,收集了被猎人射杀、车辆撞死等野鹿的淋巴结样本。研究发现,其中33%的鹿感染新冠肺炎。去年疫情恶化的时候,鹿群的感染状况也有扩散迹象。据去年研究指出,去年11月23日至今年1月10日期间,97隻鹿的样本中,有83%感染新冠肺炎。研究人员担心病毒会持续在爱荷华州的野生动物中扩散,鹿也有可能成为动物宿主。若是病毒在鹿等新宿主之间传播发生变种,将会成为传染源,也可能将新变种病毒传给人类。研究团队呼吁科学界应尽快找出积极有效的应对方式,更深入了解新冠肺炎病毒是如何在野生动物中进化,同时加强监察野生动物,找出潜在的动物宿主。
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Post by 溪山 on Nov 5, 2021 1:27:21 GMT -5
前段無雨時,小鹿常到我家門前吃花。希望今年多下雨。
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 1, 2021 16:12:06 GMT -5
UCSF确诊旧金山发现美国首例新变种(Omicron)病人。他22日从非洲南部国家旅行回美,入关后一个星期,29日检测阳性。这个病人已经完全接种了疫苗,如今显示轻微症状。
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 2, 2021 17:19:40 GMT -5
今天在另外两个州也发现这个变种病毒病人,也都是最近从非洲回来的。看起来,如今哪个地区出现一个新的变种,那基本上早已经在全球散布开来了。只要有国际旅行,百密而一疏,什么样的隔离措施都不可能阻断病毒传播。 :(
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 3, 2021 10:50:52 GMT -5
天一亮,光纽约就发现五例,全美总数达到9人,不过感觉好像大家对这病毒都已经麻木了。 :|
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Post by 溪山 on Dec 4, 2021 2:24:09 GMT -5
是,大家都麻木了,對病毒,對gun violence/hate crime。。。。。
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Post by 李斯 on Dec 6, 2021 10:28:33 GMT -5
根据这个新变种蔓延的速度和趋势,以后如果再有新的变种,等到发现再实行有选择(公民或者商务/旅游)的限制入境,隔离措施,都是不可能阻绝病毒流传的。看起来不管是从那个方面来说,今后我们只能等待病毒本身发慈悲了。 :-[
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Post by 溪山 on Dec 7, 2021 2:26:44 GMT -5
等病毒自生自滅。
疫苗的功效到底如何? 現在聽不到 rare breakthrough infections 這種說法了。
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Post by 边 草 on Dec 7, 2021 14:40:19 GMT -5
公司一个同事最近就感染了病毒,进了ER,庆幸没有生命危险。所以现在breakthrough已经不稀奇了。 生活正常遥遥无期。也许只有等到多少年后人们才能够说:哦,那一年的大流行持续了N年了呢!
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